講一講加國行長Mark Carney空降英倫銀行

November 29, 2012

(廣東話) 經濟分析師陳心田與獨立記者林錦堂講一講加國行長Mark Carney空降英倫銀行

(in Cantonese) Economic Analyst +Wallace Chan & Independent Reporter Kempton Lam chat re Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney to lead Bank of England.


Comments re: Apple Daily article about 浸會大學 投資學會基金

July 6, 2012

After reading AppleSimon’s article “利字當頭:給炒股學生的一點建議“, it got me interested enough to read the original article (see posted below). Simon’s discussions re 「集體負責」, Other’s People Money, and Principle-Agent problem are worth thinking about. What Simon and the original article did not talk about was some of the potential “structural problem” with the HKBU investment club‘s design/setup.

– “每股最少持有一個月” Questions: How often do they buy and sell the stocks inside the portfolio? Since they are “learning”, how do they resist the urge to actively do something to show that they are learning?

– “除設有主席、副主席外,另設四名分析員。” Questions: These positions, I presume, are picked/volunteered/elected? And are they changed yearly? Presumably, the chair person is the most senior student in the group? Again, the most fundamental issue I have with this is that many investments may take long time to mature and the lessons “learned” here may create a very short-term mindset, unfortunately, mirroring the many Hong Kong “investors”/gamblers. Again, I am not saying these students day-trade, but then an effective time horizon of “months” and, I am guessing, “around 12 months” is not a great idea.

– “避免學生養成炒賣習慣” Comment: Really? I guess it is all a matter of degree. To me, flipping stocks in the frequency that I suspect (but have no prove) is already “炒賣習慣”!

– “老師會充當顧問,確保每個落盤都緊守投資原則,而非短線投機。” Comment: Again, I am very curious how frequent the stocks are bought and sold in the portfolio? Here is a simple question: How many stocks in the portfolio have been there continuously for more than one, two, or three years? Any one investment that qualify?

– “六年賺22%,年均回報4%” Comment: Finally, and may be the least important of all in terms of learning. Even with the financial crisis, I thought there would be more investments that return more than an average of 4% per year? What is HK government bond’s return during those time periods?

For the record.

打本買賣 – 浸大「實錢」基金 學生做 Fund佬 (Apple Daily 2012 July 05)

不是每位大學生也有父母打本炒股,但浸會大學於06年成立了真金白銀的投資學會基金,同學仔可以一嘗 Fund佬的滋味。不過,基金表現由同學們集體負責,亦要先問老師意見,所以特別手緊。

集體問責 限買藍籌
浸大投資學會於06年獲社會人士捐出90萬元成立基金,予投資學會成員實彈炒股。基金現資產總值約110萬元,六年賺22%,年均回報4%。基金雖由學生主理,但因集體「問責」,作風審慎,只限買藍籌,每股最少持有一個月,除設有主席、副主席外,另設四名分析員。
其中一名分析員、就讀浸大財務學系一年級的李獻章稱,受歐債困擾,4月份基金已將銀行、內銀股套現,換馬至公用股。
負責監督基金運作的財務及決策學系系主任鄧裕南指出,成立學會旨在予學生機會,運用課堂知識,經分析後再作投資決定,避免學生養成炒賣習慣。雖然有多個機構舉辦投資模擬比賽,但由於未有「真金白銀」,學生炒賣心態濃厚。相反,投資學會以真錢投資,集體負責,老師會充當顧問,確保每個落盤都緊守投資原則,而非短線投機。


林錦堂與陳心田講一講 Facebook “投資”

May 22, 2012

Facebook (FB)上星期五 (May 18, 2012) IPO,開市價由IPO的$38跳升到$42,但最後以$38.23收市 (較IPO價微高23仙)。FB 星期一以$36.53較星期五收市價低開$1.70,星期一早午未收市前,我很高興可以與陳心田(Wallace Chan)首次合作用廣東話在 YouTube (LIVE,直播) 及 Google+ Hangout On Air (直播) 將我及心田(Wallace) 所知的 Facebook 講一講,與大家分享所謂的 Facebook “投資”。星期一 Facebook 最後以$34.03收市,較開市價的$42 及 IPO價$38 低 18.9% 及 10.4%。

林錦堂 與 陳心田 講一講 Facebook “投資” 20120521

Have a read of “Facebook employees have millions. Now what?


Worthless Stocks from China

March 22, 2011

An older (Jan 2011) but interesting article from Bloomberg BusinessWeek, “Worthless Stocks from China – When a retiree in Texas discovered that some Chinese companies listed in the U.S. are frauds, he unleashed an army of short-sellers“.


Citibank’s “knowledge transfer”

February 8, 2011

MarketWatch, “China staged ‘hostile’ audit of Citi: report


Li Lu (李录/李錄) won’t be joining Berkshire Hathaway

October 26, 2010

Most Chinese readers care the most about whether Li Lu (李录/李錄) will join Berkshire Hathaway. Looks like we have an answer today.

– NYT, “Buffett Opens Up on Succession Planning

“He’s [Todd Combs] got the best chance of being the successor, but if we find the right guy or gal, we’d take that person, too,” he said, adding that the matter hasn’t been decided.

Mr. Buffett also told The Times that Li Lu, a Chinese hedge fund manager considered one of the other top candidates, has decided to stay in his fund.

A few more interesting articles,

– Carol Loomis, “Meet the leading contender to manage Berkshire’s billions

– Alice Schroeder, “What I Know About Todd Combs (Updated)

– WSJ, “Warren Buffett and Todd Combs: What Do We Know?

– NPR, “Hedge Fund Manager To Take Over From Warren Buffett

– WaPo, “Warren Buffett taps Todd Combs as leading candidate to succeed him

– CNBC, “Berkshire’s Hiring of Hedge Fund Manager Creates Instant Leading Contender for Warren Buffett’s Investment Role

– Bloomberg, “Berkshire Names Fund Manager Combs to Help Steer Investments


Li Lu (李录/李錄), Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett

July 30, 2010

A very interesting article about Li Lu (李录/李錄) and Berkshire Hathaway/Warren Buffett because of who is quoted (Munger) and where it is published (WSJ). I don’t know Li Lu‘s investment style/insights at all, with BYD one and only major successful investment deal (with BRK has a hand in spotlighting), I don’t have enough information to decide how much of the BRK portfolio should Mr. Li be responsible for? I also want to hear more about the “team approach” idea. Fund managers responsible for regions or business areas?

Here is the WSJ article for the record (with emphasis added). (also see this 2009 entry)

BUSINESSJULY 30, 2010
From Tiananmen Square to Possible Buffett Successor
By SUSAN PULLIAM

Twenty-one years ago, Li Lu was a student leader of the Tiananmen Square protests. Now a hedge-fund manager, he is in line to become a successor to Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

Mr. Li, 44 years old, has emerged as a leading candidate to run a chunk of Berkshire’s $100 billion portfolio, stemming from a close friendship with Charlie Munger, Berkshire’s 86-year-old vice chairman. In an interview, Mr. Munger revealed that Mr. Li was likely to become one of the top Berkshire investment officials. “In my mind, it’s a foregone conclusion,” Mr. Munger said.

The job of filling Mr. Buffett’s shoes is among the most high-profile succession stories in modern corporate history. Mr. Buffett, who will turn 80 in a month, says he has no current plans to step down and will likely split his job after he leaves the company into separate CEO and investing functions. Mr. Li’s emergence as a contender to oversee Berkshire investments is the first time a name has been identified to fill the investment part of Mr. Buffett’s legendary role.

The development illustrates that Berkshire is moving toward putting in place—possibly sooner than investors anticipated—certain aspects of its succession plan.

The Chinese-American investor already has made money for Berkshire: He introduced Mr. Munger to BYD Co., a Chinese battery and auto maker, and Berkshire invested. Since 2008, Berkshire’s BYD stake has surged more than six-fold, generating profit of about $1.2 billion, Mr. Buffett says. Mr. Li’s hedge funds have garnered an annualized compound return of 26.4% since 1998, compared to 2.25% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index during the same period.

Mr. Li’s ascent on Wall Street has been no less dramatic. He spent his childhood shuttling between foster families after his mother and father were sent to labor camps during the Cultural Revolution. After the Tiananmen Square protest, he escaped to France and came to the U.S. Investors in his hedge fund have included a group of senior U.S. business executives and the musician Sting, who calls Mr. Li “hardworking and clever.”

Mr. Li’s investing strategy represents a significant shift for Mr. Buffett: Mr. Li invests chiefly in high-technology companies in Asia. Mr. Buffett typically has ignored investments in industries he says he doesn’t understand.

Mr. Buffett says Berkshire’s top investing job could be filled by two or more managers who would be on equal footing and divide up responsibility for managing Berkshire’s $100 billion portfolio. David Sokol, chairman of Berkshire unit MidAmerican Energy Holdings, is considered top contender for CEO. Mr. Sokol, 53, joined MidAmerican in 1991 and is known for his tireless work ethic.

In an interview, Mr. Buffett declines to comment directly on succession plans. But he doesn’t rule out bringing in an investment manager such as Mr. Li while still at Berkshire’s helm.

“I like the idea of bringing on other investment managers while I’m still here,” Mr. Buffett says. He says he doesn’t preclude making a move this year, though he adds that there is no “goal” to bring on an additional manager that quickly either. Mr. Buffett says he envisions a team approach in which the Berkshire investment officials would be “paid as a group” from one pot, he says. “I don’t want them to compete.”

Mr. Li fits the bill in some important ways, Mr. Buffett says. “You want someone” who “can think about problems that haven’t yet existed before,” he says. Read the rest of this entry »


投資20年狂升10倍

June 3, 2010

“美貌智慧並重又一例證。 86年亞姐冠軍利智,自嫁給李連杰後,一直專心相夫教女,看似甘於平淡,實則她全副心機放在投資房地產。 20年前她以 439萬購入淺水灣明慧園,昨日以 4,008萬沽出,賬面勁賺 3,569萬。” – 投資年狂升10倍 – 2010年06月03 (蘋果日報)

投資20年升了10倍,可以算是”狂升”嗎?對一些記者和讀者,20年升了10倍,可以算是大數目。但想深一層,實在只要有12.25%複利增長 ((1 + 12.25%)**20)便會升超10倍了。在過去 20年來較高的通脹情況底下,長線投資者有超過12.25%回報的也不會太出奇。當然,近年的金融風暴可能將回報打了折扣,但相信有做工課的投資者應該也不是難事。

題目用的”狂升”,不客氣一句:我相信只是記者用來賣報紙的說話/狂言。


富士康的風水

June 3, 2010

我不知富士康的風水怎樣,但讀到這篇文章後,想起一些所謂投資者,其實只是跟風的賭徒,有水只因好運。

買富士康不如問風水? – (左丁山) – 2010年06月04日

富士康( 2038)呢隻股票,近日收市報每股 5.68元,歷史市盈率高達 132倍,息率等於零(見「財華網」資料),計番轉頭,富士康在 2009年賺約四千萬美元,發行 71.43億股,即係每股盈利 0.434仙左右。通常一隻科技股能夠有咁高嘅市盈率,係因為高速增長之故,例如騰訊( 700)嘅市盈率就有 52倍,但係,富士康嘅○九年營業額比○八年減少咗二十億美元,稅前盈利下跌 64%,何來增長呀?股市有好多奇妙事情,富士康至今仍然維持一個三位數嘅 P/E,實在係奇蹟中之奇蹟,笨人如左丁山冇法子諗得明,照推算,富士康股價連一蚊都唔值。但如果在 2010年富士康嘅純利可以變魔術,彈升十倍八倍嘅話,咁就係人哋精夾醒咯!

左丁山唔係富士康股東,以前對呢隻股從無研究,只因近日呢隻股成為新聞焦點,驚動北京台北香港,先至上網睇一睇,好奇怪呢隻股票仍然有人捧場,或者人哋知道好多好嘢,而我哋係門外漢都唔定。”

P.S. As far as I know, Foxconn operates on a really thin margin (operating margin of 1.69 % and net profit margin of 1.42%) Now, with the recent suicides of Foxconn employees, Apple decided to pay Foxconn more per unit thus allowing it to pay higher salaries. I have no idea if the same margins are maintained? So I don’t quite know the bottom line implication of those events. But a P/E of 139+ for company with margin this thin is a bit nuts.


煮餸時聽書 之 豉油雞

December 25, 2009

Soy Sauce Chicken (豉油雞)Soy Sauce Chicken (豉油雞)

九個月之前開始學做豉油雞,做得多了之後,開始掌握到技巧,雖不及大酒樓的雞嫩滑,但己經好吃過外賣,亦可以全用健康食材。

我煮餸時有時會想想問題,有時聽聽書。今次再聽耶魯大學教授Robert Shiller 的一課,這一課是由David Swensen(耶魯大學其金經理)講的嘉賓講課。聽Swensen這一課有三四次了,聽聽再想想每次都明白多了一點。

世上自認是投資專家的人多的是(電視及報紙很多自稱”投資專家”)。其實只要花點時間及精神慢慢去學習的話,投資之道說難也是不太難的。


愛麗絲 論 畢菲特 – 鐵路大亨

November 4, 2009

After writing the insightful Warren Buffett biography The Snowball, Alice Schroeder has gained my respect and I look forward to read her analysis of Warren’s investment decisions.

Here is an excerpt from Alice’s Bloomberg column about the Burlington Northern Santa Fe deal and the 50-to-1 stock split, “Buffett Revisits Hunting Ground for Survivors“,

Warren Buffett called Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s deal to buy the part of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. that it doesn’t already own an “all-in wager on the economic future of the United States.”

If so, it’s a survivalist bet. The railroad business is never going away, but it’s not going to lead the economy out of recession, either. Buffett has spent a lot of time in the last year burnishing his legacy by tackling Franklin Roosevelt’s role as the verbal antidepressant for this wretched economy. As I have said before, though, Buffett isn’t as bullish as he sounds.

[…] A final motive I am confident about is that Buffett finally has a plausible excuse to split Berkshire’s B shares. He has spilled a lot of ink over the years decrying stock splits. A 50- to-1 ratio isn’t a stock split, it is a mincing.


畢菲特 – 鐵路大亨

November 3, 2009

畢菲特今天用了$340億元 ($34 billion) 買了 Burlington Northern Santa Fe 鐵路。在我的英文blog,你可以聽到他老人家直接在CNBC的說話。

P.S. 以前寫過的投資文章: 股神股仙、股皇股后 and 大上、大落 與 運氣


兩周一聚: Donut / 冬甩

October 29, 2009

A Donut or Two by RavenCore17.

戒冬甩

曾經很喜歡donut,每星期必吃一次。與同事輪流請客。但近年己差不多戒掉了吃donut。太甜同太肥,忍忍口。

笑冬甩

美國同加拿大人喜歡笑警察偷懶時,總可以在Donut店找到他們在吃Donut飲coffee。所以有人話Donut係美加警察的主要食糧。一笑。

炒冬甩

其實大家可能唔知Donut未必一定係炸的。有時係炒的。話說,加拿大最出名的Donut店是Tim Hortons,公司响2006年3月上市,高開到$33.1,07年十二月更升至$38.89。不幸地,現在(09年10月16日)足足三年之後,Tim Hortons (THI)跌到$31.29。得個桔。

美國最出名的Donut店是Krispy Kreme。當年KKD上CNBC,人人以為佢係寶貝神奇冬甩。03年8月15日曾經有人炒Krispy Kreme的股票炒到$48.9的天價,現在(09年10月16日)KKD跌到$4.3。係$4.3,連10%都冇!唉,怕未?

其他冬甩網友文章請看兩周一聚

Krispy Kreme Sign by AnneBPhoto.


百度李彥宏 – 史丹福大學講座

October 19, 2009

百度CEO李彥宏史丹福大學的講座


股神股仙、股皇股后

October 19, 2009

我認為任何人說的話,我們都應該經過思考才決定相信與否。

香港和大陸傳媒作大的股神股仙、股皇股后,看了當笑話便是,信了跑去投資便令人頭痛。不幸的是香港和大陸人,往往只喜歡賺快錢,視投資與去賭場賭博分別不大。可能大家忘了去賭場賭博,賭場永遠是贏家。

提議大家睇睇,”Warren Buffett’s ‘Buy American’ – One Year Later“,同英文“Buy American”原文摘錄

歡迎評論/comment,但評論前請仔細閱讀兩篇文章。我不想花大家時間重複文章寫得清楚的地方。


雪球

October 14, 2009

Read my review of The Snowball (with book excerpt) here.


大上、大落 與 運氣

October 14, 2009

報紙和電視都有很多所謂”股市專家”,他們説話永遠信心十足。但看得和讀得多一點之後,會發現所謂股市專家們,往往所知和所説的話都是些跟風的”預測”。錯的時候扮失憶,提也不提之前的錯。幸運地”預測”成真時,他們往往日日也提一提威水史。:)

其實股市投資不應全靠專家。自己花點時間,讀一讀報紙新聞,讀一讀公司年報,慢慢去明白一間公司的運作及業務。看到時機時,便可以做出小心的投資決定。

股市時有大上與大落。其實大上不必太高興,大落亦未必一定是壞事。當然,千萬別忘記運氣的重要性。


A $150 banknote question

October 2, 2009

My reply in this blog entry lead me to this question:

If someone pays good money, for example $280, for a $150 legal banknote which they most likely (say 99.9%) will NEVER use, is it the same as thinking that 99.9% of these banknotes have been burned? How does these affect the bank’s obligation?

(note: burning a legal tender (a banknote) is illegal in many countries)

(By the way, most Post Offices around the world deals with this issue all the time as they frequently issue new stamps and collectors would buy these stamps and NEVER use them. Or will buy the stamps and immediately get the post office to stamp it on the day of their first issue.)