压低人民币汇率 => 供养美国 => 中国人愚蠢 ? – RMB exchange rate

薛兆丰 is one of the Chinese economist that I respect even we have our disagreements. For example, I disagree with him calling “美国奥巴马…乱花钱大计”. But I do think most of his analysis in his blog entry “压低人民币汇率等于供养美国” are clear and easy to understand. Here is an excerpt,

在2005年,经济学教授塔洛克(Gordon Tullock)在走廊拉着我问:“中国人只想收藏美钞,却向美国提供真材实料的商品,这是为什么?”我回答:“我知道中国人就是喜欢收藏美钞。”塔洛克摇头:“我想到的唯一解释,就是中国人愚蠢。”过了两个礼拜,我跑到塔洛克的办公室问他:“美国要求人民币升值,岂不也是很蠢?”塔洛克答:“美国政府是因为一些美国公司有意见,被迫向中国施加压力。美国只是说说,还没做什么;但中国是实实在在地把货物运过来,以过高的价格收藏美元,所以还是中国人蠢。” 我说:“美国这么一施加压力,中国人就更不愿意升值了。” 塔洛克了解中国人爱面子的脾气(他曾是驻中国的外交官),听了连连称是。

2 Responses to 压低人民币汇率 => 供养美国 => 中国人愚蠢 ? – RMB exchange rate

  1. Haricot says:

    Although I am not an economist, it is my understanding that a country’s under-valued or devaluated currency will help its export industries sell goods to foreign markets. A case in point is Canada’s forest and manufacturing industries that were in trouble when the Canadian loony was strong against the US dollar less than a year ago (ironically they are now facing a different kind of threat – global economic downturn). So, it makes sense to me for China to keep the Chinese currency low (plus lower wages, higher efficiencies, etc) to remain competitive and hold on to the low-price advantage. What do you think?

  2. kempton says:

    Haricot,

    If you haven’t read 兆丰’s “压低人民币汇率等于供养美国”, I recommend have a look. If you have, it is definitely worth reading it again as 兆丰 has done a great job in explaining his views than I ever can.

    In the case of Canada, the Canadian currency being weak in an international freely traded market is quite different from China’s state controlled artificially kept low exchange rate.

    兆丰 made this insightful point “说到底,人们是为了改善生活而工作,而不是为了工作而工作。”

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